Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

MarketsOct 4, 2026

Group vol

$718

Liquidity

$126.4K

Outcomes

Loading CLOB probability history for this event group.

OutcomeProbabilityBidAskDepthVolTrade

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

94.2%

93.3c

95.2c

$951

$105

Yes94.1c No5.85c

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Bid93.2c

Ask95.2c

Depth2,974

PriceSizeTotal

Mid94.20cSpread2.0c2.123%

Flavio Bolsonaro

83.5%

83c

84c

$767

$172

Yes83.5c No16.5c

Renan Santos

10.5%

9.00c

12c

$1.6K

$121

Yes10.5c No89.5c

Ronaldo Caiado

4.2%

1.10c

7.30c

$984

$486

Yes4.20c No95.8c

Michelle Bolsonaro

3.1%

2.60c

3.70c

$319

Yes3.15c No96.8c

Romeu Zema

3.1%

0.50c

5.70c

$998

$154

Yes3.10c No96.8c

Jair Bolsonaro

1.8%

1.20c

2.30c

$13.3K

Yes1.75c No98.2c

Fernando Haddad

1.7%

1.60c

1.80c

$1.5K

$63.7K

Yes1.70c No98.3c

Tarcisio de Frietas

1.6%

1.20c

2.00c

$80.7K

Yes1.60c No98.4c

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Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

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